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Periodic Reviews on Artificial Intelligence in Health Informatics

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Cite Score: 0.6 Impact Factor: 0.7
AI-Driven Epidemic Response: Optimizing Disease Prediction and Resource Allocation
Author's Details

Name: Md Abdur Rob

Email: marob.sust2014@gmail.com

Department: Department of Economics

Affiliation Number: 1

Address: Athens, OH 45701, USA

Affiliations

1 Department of Economics, Ohio University , Athens, OH 45701, USA

2 Department of Business Administration, International American University , Los Angeles, CA 90010, USA

Abstract
The global spread of COVID-19 has exposed vulnerabilities in healthcare systems and highlighted the need for predictive tools to mitigate its impact. This study employs machine learning (ML) techniques, including Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XG-Boost), to predict disease spread and optimize resource allocation. Using datasets enriched with features like population density, healthcare capacity, and mobility patterns, XG-Boost achieved superior performance, attaining 100% accuracy and surpassing RF (99%) and SVM (76%). Advanced methods, such as SHAP (SHapley Additive Explanations), provided critical insights into key factors driving disease progression, enabling transparent and interpretable predictions. The findings underscore the transformative potential of AI-driven solutions in guiding ICU bed allocation, ventilator distribution, and healthcare resource deployment, particularly in resource-constrained settings. While this study demonstrates the scalability and precision of ML frameworks for epidemic management, it also acknowledges limitations, such as dataset imbalance, and suggests integrating real-time data for enhanced predictions. By advancing AI applications in public health, this research offers a scalable and practical framework to strengthen global preparedness and response to future health crises.

Keywords: 

COVID-19, XG-Boost, Kaggle, confusion matrix, COVID-19 dataset

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This article is Open Access CC BY-NC
Article Information
Article Type
Research Paper
Submitted
30 November, -0001
Revised
30 November, -0001
Accepted
15 October, 2025
Online First
25 October, 2025
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