AI-Driven Epidemic Response: Optimizing Disease Prediction and
Resource Allocation
Affiliations
1
Department of Economics, Ohio University
, Athens, OH 45701, USA
2
Department of Business Administration, International American University
, Los Angeles, CA 90010, USA
Abstract
The global spread of COVID-19 has exposed vulnerabilities in healthcare systems and
highlighted the need for predictive tools to mitigate its impact. This study employs machine
learning (ML) techniques, including Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and
Extreme Gradient Boosting (XG-Boost), to predict disease spread and optimize resource
allocation. Using datasets enriched with features like population density, healthcare capacity, and
mobility patterns, XG-Boost achieved superior performance, attaining 100% accuracy and
surpassing RF (99%) and SVM (76%). Advanced methods, such as SHAP (SHapley Additive
Explanations), provided critical insights into key factors driving disease progression, enabling
transparent and interpretable predictions. The findings underscore the transformative potential
of AI-driven solutions in guiding ICU bed allocation, ventilator distribution, and healthcare
resource deployment, particularly in resource-constrained settings. While this study
demonstrates the scalability and precision of ML frameworks for epidemic management, it also
acknowledges limitations, such as dataset imbalance, and suggests integrating real-time data for
enhanced predictions. By advancing AI applications in public health, this research offers a
scalable and practical framework to strengthen global preparedness and response to future health
crises.
Keywords:
COVID-19, XG-Boost, Kaggle,
confusion matrix, COVID-19 dataset