Forecasting Financial Crashes with Advanced Time-Series Methods:
A Predictive Framework
Affiliations
1
Department of Business Administration, International American University, Los Angeles, CA 90010, USA
2
Department of Marketing Analytics and Insights, Wright State University, 3640 Colonel Glenn Hwy, Dayton, OH 45435, USA
3
Department of Business Administration, Westcliff University, 17877 Von Karman Ave, 4th floor, Irvine, CA 92614, USA
Abstract
The research involves examining how financial markets, particularly the NASDAQ and S&P 500
indices, react when under stress, as well as applying advanced time series techniques in an
attempt to predict crashes. Accurate prediction of crashes is important due to the tremendous
impact financial market collapses, including the 2008 and COVID-19 epidemics, have on the
worldwide economy. To model non-linear market dynamics, the study combines dynamic
GARCH extensions and wavelet-based time series decomposition with ARIMA and GARCH
models to forecast market volatility. The sample period ranged from January 2021 to August
2024, with total observations of 787 and 921 for the S&P500 and NASDAQ, respectively. The
selection of the ARIMA and GARCH models was confirmed by the ADF and PP tests to
determine whether the time series is stationary. The GARCH model with the GARCH effect of
0.912741 has most certainly accommodated the volatility clustering phenomenon, due to which
an episode of high (low) volatility was followed by another episode of the same kind and
successive spikes in the volatility, especially in the case of NASDAQ. The volatility persistence
of the S&P 500 was lower (0.6785330 GARCH effect). For a relatively small level
autoregressive table, the forecasts demonstrate that the variance of S&P 500 substantially
increases in high volatility periods for most by up to 0.006. The NASDAQ was somewhat more
persistent, as indicated by a variance of 0.00024. These findings illustrat...
Keywords:
ARIMA Models, GARCH Analysis,
Market Crashes, Volatility Trends, and
AI Forecasting