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Transactions on Banking, Finance, and Leadership Informatics

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Forecasting Financial Crashes with Advanced Time-Series Methods: A Predictive Framework
Author's Details

Name: Mohammad Shahidullah

Email: shahidbd2004@gmail.com

Department: Department of Business Administration

Affiliation Number: 1

Address: Los Angeles, CA 90010, USA

Affiliations

1 Department of Business Administration, International American University, Los Angeles, CA 90010, USA

2 Department of Marketing Analytics and Insights, Wright State University, 3640 Colonel Glenn Hwy, Dayton, OH 45435, USA

3 Department of Business Administration, Westcliff University, 17877 Von Karman Ave, 4th floor, Irvine, CA 92614, USA

Abstract
The research involves examining how financial markets, particularly the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices, react when under stress, as well as applying advanced time series techniques in an attempt to predict crashes. Accurate prediction of crashes is important due to the tremendous impact financial market collapses, including the 2008 and COVID-19 epidemics, have on the worldwide economy. To model non-linear market dynamics, the study combines dynamic GARCH extensions and wavelet-based time series decomposition with ARIMA and GARCH models to forecast market volatility. The sample period ranged from January 2021 to August 2024, with total observations of 787 and 921 for the S&P500 and NASDAQ, respectively. The selection of the ARIMA and GARCH models was confirmed by the ADF and PP tests to determine whether the time series is stationary. The GARCH model with the GARCH effect of 0.912741 has most certainly accommodated the volatility clustering phenomenon, due to which an episode of high (low) volatility was followed by another episode of the same kind and successive spikes in the volatility, especially in the case of NASDAQ. The volatility persistence of the S&P 500 was lower (0.6785330 GARCH effect). For a relatively small level autoregressive table, the forecasts demonstrate that the variance of S&P 500 substantially increases in high volatility periods for most by up to 0.006. The NASDAQ was somewhat more persistent, as indicated by a variance of 0.00024. These findings illustrat...

Keywords: 

ARIMA Models, GARCH Analysis, Market Crashes, Volatility Trends, and AI Forecasting

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This article is Open Access CC BY-NC
Article Information
Article Type
Research Paper
Submitted
25 October, 2025
Revised
06 September, 2025
Accepted
17 October, 2025
Online First
25 October, 2025
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