Integrating AI and Econometrics for Equity Forecasting: A Case
Study on Apple and Microsoft Stocks
Affiliations
1
Department of Business Administration, International American University, Los Angeles, CA 90010, USA
2
Cybersecurity Expert, Washington University Science and Technology, Alexandria, Virginia, VA 22314, USA
3
Information Technology Expert, Westcliff University, Irvine, CA 92614, USA
4
Department of Business Administration, Westcliff University, Irvine, CA 92614, USA
Abstract
Financial forecasting in the US stock market has traditionally relied on econometric models such
as ARIMA, SARIMA, and GARCH, which offer interpretability and robust performance in
stable environments. However, the increasing complexity and volatility of modern markets—
driven by nonlinear dynamics and high-frequency trading—have exposed the limitations of these
classical approaches.This research aims to evaluate and compare the predictive performance of
traditional econometric models and AI-augmented methods, with a special focus on the Prophet
model, in forecasting stock prices and volatility for major US firms, specifically Apple (AAPL)
and Microsoft (MSFT). The study seeks to determine whether hybrid AI-econometric
frameworks provide superior accuracy and risk quantification compared to standalone models.
Historical daily price data (January–June 2024) from Yahoo Finance underwent preprocessing:
log-return transformation, stationarity enforcement (ADF/PP tests), outlier winsorization, and
volatility clustering validation. Models were trained on 80% of the data (105 observations) and
tested on 20% (26 observations). Performance was measured via RMSE, MAE, AIC/BIC, and
uncertainty interval accuracy. Prophet outperformed traditional models, reducing Apple’s RMSE
by 6% (7.02 vs. 7.46) and MAE by 8.9% (4.70 vs. 5.16) compared to AI-augmented ARIMA.
For Microsoft, Prophet achieved 11% lower RMSE (9.46 vs. 10.64) and 14.4% better MAE (5.89
vs. 6.88). AI-augmented...
Keywords:
AI-augmented forecasting, Prophet
model, ARIMA-GARCH hybrid, stock
price prediction, volatility clustering,
US equities.