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Transactions on Banking, Finance, and Leadership Informatics

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Integrating AI and Econometrics for Equity Forecasting: A Case Study on Apple and Microsoft Stocks
Author's Details

Name: Md Abdullah Al Mahmud

Email: abdullahiau1@outlook.com

Department: Department of Business Administration

Affiliation Number: 1

Address: Los Angeles, CA 90010, USA

Affiliations

1 Department of Business Administration, International American University, Los Angeles, CA 90010, USA

2 Cybersecurity Expert, Washington University Science and Technology, Alexandria, Virginia, VA 22314, USA

3 Information Technology Expert, Westcliff University, Irvine, CA 92614, USA

4 Department of Business Administration, Westcliff University, Irvine, CA 92614, USA

Abstract
Financial forecasting in the US stock market has traditionally relied on econometric models such as ARIMA, SARIMA, and GARCH, which offer interpretability and robust performance in stable environments. However, the increasing complexity and volatility of modern markets— driven by nonlinear dynamics and high-frequency trading—have exposed the limitations of these classical approaches.This research aims to evaluate and compare the predictive performance of traditional econometric models and AI-augmented methods, with a special focus on the Prophet model, in forecasting stock prices and volatility for major US firms, specifically Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT). The study seeks to determine whether hybrid AI-econometric frameworks provide superior accuracy and risk quantification compared to standalone models. Historical daily price data (January–June 2024) from Yahoo Finance underwent preprocessing: log-return transformation, stationarity enforcement (ADF/PP tests), outlier winsorization, and volatility clustering validation. Models were trained on 80% of the data (105 observations) and tested on 20% (26 observations). Performance was measured via RMSE, MAE, AIC/BIC, and uncertainty interval accuracy. Prophet outperformed traditional models, reducing Apple’s RMSE by 6% (7.02 vs. 7.46) and MAE by 8.9% (4.70 vs. 5.16) compared to AI-augmented ARIMA. For Microsoft, Prophet achieved 11% lower RMSE (9.46 vs. 10.64) and 14.4% better MAE (5.89 vs. 6.88). AI-augmented...

Keywords: 

AI-augmented forecasting, Prophet model, ARIMA-GARCH hybrid, stock price prediction, volatility clustering, US equities.

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This article is Open Access CC BY-NC
Article Information
Article Type
Research Paper
Submitted
28 January, 2025
Revised
05 January, 2025
Accepted
21 January, 2025
Online First
28 January, 2025
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